South Carolina and Fractions of Factions
On Saturday night, Newt Gingrich won the Republican primary in South Carolina. The original outcome of the Iowa caucus fell through earlier in the week and went to Rick Santorum instead of the originally stated winner, Mitt Romney. Combine those two contests with the Romney win from New Hampshire and you find a fractured, uncertain Republican electorate. Just as Red Brown and Blue pointed out after Iowa, they simply can’t rally around a single candidate because none of the candidates offer more than a fractional degree of satisfaction to the divided party.
Gingrich, though, made a strong case Saturday night that he can put the pieces together better than the other options.
His comments after the results came in included a strategic mention of each other candidate on the South Carolina ballot. Gingrich praised Rick Santorum’s can-do persistence in Iowa and his adherence to social conservatism. He commended Ron Paul for consistent and accurate messaging on inflation and the Federal Reserve. He even offered an positive acknowledgement of Mitt Romney’s organizational success and business acumen. Though presented as a fair, friendly pat on the back to his rivals, it actually served as an advertisement to the followers of those other candidates. Gingrich was broadcasting to those voters, “I know what you like about those guys. I like those things, too, and I can combine all of their concerns in my agenda. Follow me now. I’m the winner.”
Gingrich still faces a considerable challenge to securing the nomination: his own history. Unlike the other candidates seeking the GOP nomination, Gingrich’s former role as Speaker of the House during the Clinton presidency means he is familiar to most voters heading to the ballot box in November. His approval rating among Republican voters across the U.S. is not high, while his approval among national Democrats is dismal. On this point, he simply can’t claim to be the Republican’s best choice for the purpose of defeating President Obama. Specific elements of Newt’s past contributing to his notoriety include well-known marital infidelities, presiding over two shutdowns of the federal government, and the $300,000 fine charged against him for ethics violations while serving as Speaker.
Newt possesses some positive characteristics. He’s intelligent and direct, articulating well when speaking in public. He’s adept at navigating the currents of political sentiment among varied audiences (though contradictions when speaking to a different audience are often later exposed). Gingrich also comes across as genuine, unlike the made-for-politics insincerity oozing from Mitt Romney at every appearance. But the GOP fears Gingrich’s volatility. It’s fair to describe the man as somewhat ego-maniacal. Newt’s directness and conviction of his own opinion worry Republicans who expect Newt to verbally shoot himself in the foot and, in the process, cripple any hope of unseating Obama.
After South Carolina, the Republican field remains open. Florida comes next and, with Ron Paul skipping the state, presents a stage for the Gingrich/Santorum tandem to further erode Romney’s former position as the heir apparent. The multiple factions within the GOP get more time to figure out their differences and decide if any common ground exists within a solitary candidate. Newt Gingrich claimed the common ground this week. South Carolina agreed.
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Jake Negovan drives Red Brown and Blue to be an outlet for progressive political opinion that leads to the betterment of life for the real, multicultural population of the U.S. and the rest of the world. His columns address the issues faced by our country as we continue growing toward a society of equality. More about Jake can be found on the web at jakejots.com or on Twitter@jakenegovan.
