Mitt Takes New Hampshire
The Republican primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday evening resulted in a historic victory for Mitt Romney – he is the first non-incumbent candidate in the modern primary era to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. The momentum provided by these two wins gives Romney a strong likelihood of securing the eventual nomination, with the upcoming contests in South Carolina and Florida offering an opportunity to solidify victory.
Mitt secured roughly thirty-nine percent of the vote in the primary. Some commentators suggest the below-forty-percent showing is a sign of Romney’s continuing struggle to rally support from the GOP base. In fact, his numbers are in nearly identical to John McCain’s win in 2008 and G.W. Bush’s victory in ’88. Romney’s share doesn’t indicate soft support as much as it shows his ability to emerge from a crowded field. Though he excites few within the Republican party and aggravates many, he remains the candidate the GOP sees as either most electable, most likely to overcome Obama, or most deserving of the nomination. Still nobody’s real favorite, but most people’s “good as we got.”
Ron Paul achieved a strong second-place showing with just over a fifth of voters punching the ballot for him. Paul’s significant totals between New Hampshire and Iowa guarantee a prolonged stay in the race against Romney and, assuming he does not secure the eventual nomination, raises the possibility of an independent campaign for the presidency. Though Ron Paul appeals to some college-age voters and anti-establishment groups, a third-party effort from Paul would likely siphon off more votes from the Republican candidate than the Democratic one.
Jon Huntsman finished last in Iowa (he did not technically participate) but managed a third place finish in New Hampshire. Keeping his candidacy alive and kicking might feel like a victory to some, but Huntsman spent a lot of time and money in this state and really needed a full win to establish any legitimate hope of becoming the republican nominee for president. This writer – speaking as someone with no interest in having a Republican president any time soon – finds it unfortunate for the GOP that Huntsman can’t find favor. His (comparatively) moderate conservatism, coupled with an ability to perform well on television and in public appearances, seems to make him the candidate with the most ability to unseat our incumbent president. The extreme right-wing forces holding sway over the present-day Republican party simply can’t abide Huntsman’s views on immigration, corporate taxes, torture policies, and Social Security.
Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum practically tied for fourth. Neither will be the nominee. Newt knows it, but Santorum probably retains some hope from his Iowa finish. The bruising of Gingrich’s ego will continue to make him a dangerous element for Romney in at least the next two contests as he pushes the GOP to select someone – anyone – other than Mitt. However, Romney’s New Hampshire win will push more of the Republican cheerleaders in the media and the government to get behind his candidacy, marginalizing Gingrich’s agenda and message even further.
Finally, Rick Perry finished last in New Hampshire, securing just one percent more of the vote than you or me. Perry’s pride may be damaged, but not enough to convince him that the end of his candidacy already came and went. He’s put significant resources into the South Carolina contest and hopes to surge back into contention with a strong turnout there. It’s over though. The real matter at question is Perry’s intention at this stage. Does he hope to come across well enough to secure a VP position on the eventual ticket, or does he want to make enough of an impression to bolster a future run for the Oval Office? The Republicans don’t have a history of picking the new guy, but someone who keeps trying, pays his dues…that’s a different story. Perry might actually be at the beginning of his 2016 campaign.
The opinions expressed in this post and throughout RedBrownandBlue.com are intended to encourage civil discussion and invite well-reasoned alternatives. You can participate in the conversation by finding us on Facebook, Google Plus, or Twitter. We also encourage you to visit our Contact Us page and drop us a line. Your contribution may be highlighted as a selected response and posted to this site at a later date.
Jake Negovan drives Red Brown and Blue to be an outlet for progressive political opinion that leads to the betterment of life for the real, multicultural population of the U.S. and the rest of the world. His columns address the issues faced by our country as we continue growing toward a society of equality. More about Jake can be found on the web at jakejots.com or on Twitter@jakenegovan.
